The Middle East – The Emergence of a New Balance of Power or the Beginning of an Endless War? – Sixth Lecture of BGS

The Middle East – The Emergence of a New Balance of Power or the Beginning of an Endless War?

The lecture “The Middle East – The Emergence of a New Balance of Power or the Beginning of an Endless War?”, delivered by Prof. Dr. Vladimir Ajzenhamer on May 11, focused on the analysis of the transformation of the regional order in the Middle East following the outbreak of the war in Gaza. Through an examination of changes in relations among regional actors, attention was drawn to the weakening of Iran’s network of proxy actors, the limitations of the American offshore balancing strategy, and changes in the mechanisms of regional deterrence. The role of the United States and the challenges faced by the existing regional security system were also discussed. In the final part of the lecture, during the discussion, similarities and differences between Israeli and Iranian strategic culture were analyzed, including questions of hubris, the cyclical nature of conflict, and the mythologization of politics as factors influencing the long-term dynamics of regional conflicts and the possibility of their further escalation. The lecture concluded with a discussion of possible directions for the future development of political and security processes in the Middle East.